There has been an overall decline of 16% in the area harvested under tobacco farming between 2010 and 2019.
Acreage Under Tobacco Farming and Production
The number of hectares under tobacco decreased sharply between 2010 and 2015 (from 19 000 ha to 14 000 ha) but stabilized at around 16 000 ha subsequently. Similarly, the quantity of leaf tobacco produced decreased sharply between 2010 and 2013 but also stabilized at about 11 000 tons in subsequent periods.
Kenya’s drop in tobacco production mirrors broader global trends. From 2013 onwards, tobacco-producing countries globally, including the seven largest tobacco producers in the world (China, Brazil, India, the United States of America, Indonesia, Zimbabwe and Malawi) experienced decreasing levels of tobacco leaf production. The reasons for this decline can be divided into demand and supply factors. The supply factors include the decline in tobacco leaf prices due to poor tobacco leaf quality, more tobacco on international markets from competing countries, the inventory strategies used by tobacco companies (where they release stock when it is economically advantageous to do so), and the promotion of alternative crops. The demand factors include advancements in manufacturing technology and an increased demand for filtered cigarettes. This results in 15% to 20% less tobacco leaf being used in the manufacture of the same quantity of cigarettes and a consequent reduced demand for raw tobacco leaf. In light of these factors, tobacco leaf production is predicted to decline further.
